College Football: How the 2024-25 CFP Would Have Looked Under Proposed Expansion Formats
The College Football Playoff (CFP) is all set to expand again in 2026, transitioning from a 12-team format to either a 14 or 16-team format. While the exact details are still pending, it’s exciting to ponder how this change could reshape the playoff landscape. In a recent episode of “The Joel Klatt Show: Big Noon Conversations,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti provided insights on the ongoing discussions regarding the CFP expansion, emphasizing his desire for more significant games and suggesting that a 16-team format could help fulfill that goal.
“Bigger is better,” Petitti stated. “I think 12 is not enough teams considering the size of the squads competing. Looking at professional leagues, they typically have around 40% to 50% of their teams qualifying for the postseason. We’re significantly below that, even at 16. We want to proceed with caution.”
As discussions for a potential 16-team CFP take shape, the criteria for choosing which teams would qualify remains up for debate, but automatic qualifiers will likely play a role. Let’s explore how the proposed formats for CFP expansion might have impacted last year’s field, particularly since the CFP has shifted to a straight seeding model following the last season.
4+4+2+2+1+3 Format
In this 16-team model, the Big Ten and the SEC would have claimed four automatic bids each, while the ACC and Big 12 would receive two bids each. Additionally, there would be one automatic spot for the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion and three at-large bids. To illustrate this, we examined standings from the four major conferences to determine which teams would have earned automatic qualifying spots.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and Penn State would have earned automatic bids thanks to their top conference records in the regular season. The other two matchups during the conference championship weekend would have featured Illinois (No. 6) against Indiana (No. 3) and Iowa (No. 5) against Ohio State (No. 4). Assuming Indiana and Ohio State emerge victorious, they would fill the two remaining automatic bids.
The SEC would have seen Georgia and Texas receiving automatic bids for their impressive regular season records too. The other two matchups would be South Carolina (No. 6) versus Tennessee (No. 3), and LSU (No. 5) facing Alabama (No. 4). Presuming Tennessee and Alabama win their games, they would secure the other automatic spots.
The scenarios for the ACC and the Big 12’s conference championship weekends remain less defined. However, for this example, let’s assume the teams finishing No. 1 and No. 2 in the regular-season standings from both conferences qualify for the CFP, leading to SMU and Clemson from the ACC and Arizona State and Iowa State from the Big 12 entering the playoffs. Boise State, ranked No. 9 in the final CFP poll, would represent the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.
As for the three at-large spots, that’s where it gets a bit tricky. slot casino ph Notre Dame, who finished fifth in the final CFP poll, would likely claim one of these bids. The rankings suggest Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss would take the final two at-large spots. However, since neither team played in the conference championship weekend during this exercise, it leaves room for interpretation. For now, let’s add both Miami and Ole Miss to the CFP lineup.
Here’s how the 16-team field would look under this format:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Miami (Fla.)
- Ole Miss
- Clemson
- Iowa State
First two teams out: South Carolina, BYU
One proposed idea for the 16-team CFP involves the top two seeds receiving a double bye, with a play-in round between the No. 13-16 seeds. Consequently, Miami would host Iowa State, which was the matchup in the Pop-Tarts Bowl last season, while Ole Miss would host Clemson. In the second round, Ohio State would take on Alabama and Notre Dame would face Arizona State. kkk jili casino Notably, Oregon would avoid a quarterfinal matchup against Ohio State due to the straight seeding.
5+11 Format
This format is likely the easiest to understand. In this case, the five highest-ranked conference champions and the eleven highest-ranked at-large teams would qualify for the 2024 CFP. The field might look like this:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Miami (Fla.)
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Clemson
First two teams out: BYU, Iowa State
Had there been a “play-in weekend,” we would have witnessed Miami hosting Clemson following their ACC Championship win, while Ole Miss takes on South Carolina. This format primarily shifts only the last two seeds compared to the prior model, resulting in South Carolina stepping in for Iowa State from the previous iteration. This means the Big 12 would then have only one representative in the tournament.
4+4+2.5+2.5+1+2 Format
This format mirrors the initial model, the sole difference being one additional automatic bid, either awarded to an ACC team or allowing the Big 12 to receive a third automatic spot based on their third-place team’s rank. For the sake of simplicity, let’s say the same eight teams from the Big Ten and SEC earn automatic bids, while SMU, Clemson, Arizona State, and Iowa State do the same for their respective conferences, the ACC and Big 12.
This would leave Miami and BYU vying for the remaining automatic qualifying spot. Miami, ranked higher at No. 13 compared to BYU at No. 17, would advance to the CFP. However, if the CFP wanted to be creative, it could arrange a matchup between the ACC and Big 12’s third-place teams for this opportunity.
Boise State, again representing the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, secures a spot in this format as well. Notably, Notre Dame secured fifth in the final CFP poll, giving it a good shot at one of the last at-large spots, while Ole Miss is expected to claim the other.
Based on this structure, the 16-team field would look like this:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Miami (Fla.)
- Ole Miss
- Clemson
- Iowa State
First two teams out: South Carolina, BYU
This configuration yields the same 16 teams and seeds as the earlier format, yet the difference lies in giving Miami an automatic bid, a luxury not afforded to them in other formats last season. jlph app This would also bring more stability for the ACC or Big 12, where their third-place team typically doesn’t rank in the top 10 of the final CFP poll.
4+4+3+3+1+1 Format
In this proposed layout, both the ACC and Big 12 would each receive three automatic qualifiers while the Big Ten and SEC retain four spots. fb777 pro.com Additionally, one automatic qualifier would go to the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, alongside one at-large bid. platform asia
In this case, we’ll continue to assume the same eight teams qualify via the conference championship weekend. How exactly the ACC and Big 12 determine their three automatic qualifiers could vary, but a simple approach might involve the top two teams from each conference in the regular season taking two of those spots and determining the final one through a play-in game. If the higher-ranked teams secure their wins, the ACC might yield representatives in SMU, Clemson, and Miami, while Arizona State, Iowa State, and BYU would stand for the Big 12’s three automatic qualifiers.
As before, Boise State is the designated Group of 5 champion while Notre Dame would likely fill the singular at-large spot.
Here’s how this new field would look:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Miami (Fla.)
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- BYU
First two teams out: Ole Miss, South Carolina
The notable difference here is that Ole Miss wouldn’t qualify for the CFP as they didn’t finish in the SEC’s top six and weren’t the highest-ranked remaining team for an at-large spot. In this scenario, the anticipated play-in weekend would feature two matchups between the ACC and Big 12 teams, while the top 12 seeds remain consistent as established in previous formats.
14-Team Format: 4+4+2+2+1+1
While it may seem less likely, a 14-team format remains on the table for the impending CFP expansion. The standard structure for a 14-team playoff would award four automatic bids to both the Big Ten and SEC, along with two each for the ACC and Big 12. The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion would also be included, along with an at-large spot for the highest-ranked remaining team.
This format resembles our earlier configuration but comprises two fewer at-large bids. Thus, the four teams from the Big Ten and SEC continue to stay the same, just like the ACC (SMU and Clemson) and Big 12 (Arizona State and Iowa State). However, it remains uncertain how conferences might approach their championship weekends under this model.
Ultimately, Boise State would serve as the representative for the highest-ranked Group of 5 team and Notre Dame would still hold the at-large position.
Here’s how a potential 14-team CFP lineup would look last season:
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Alabama
- Arizona State
- Clemson
- Iowa State
First two teams out: Miami, Ole Miss
The top 12 seeds in this structure remain unchanged when compared to the four previously mentioned formats, but this is the first structure that excludes Miami. A play-in weekend would not be feasible in a 14-team format. Oregon and Georgia would receive first-round byes as the other 12 teams battle it out. Anticipated first-round matchups could include Iowa State versus Texas, Clemson traveling to face Penn State, and Alabama matching up against Ohio State.
What are your thoughts on these proposed formats for the College Football Playoff expansion?
